Increased chance of tropical development in Gulf of Mexico

Olive Hawkins
October 6, 2018

"If it does, it would be the middle of next week and would impact the north and central coastline of the Gulf of Mexico".

Not a washout, but more spotty showers with many dry hours.

Meteorologist Ryan Maue of weathermodels.com forecasts a weak area of low pressure forming next week in the Gulf of Mexico.

Over the next five days, forecasters say the system has an 80 percent chance of developing into a cyclone.

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A tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week as it drifts slowly northwestward.

The Hurricane Center noted that hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

According to Weather Underground's Cat 6 blog, a similar system became Tropical Depression 16 at this time previous year and would later become Hurricane Nate, which made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 1 storm on October 7. But the weather service cautions that even if the system doesnt turn into a major storm, it could still bring "torrential" rain to nearby coastal areas. At the very least, the Florida Peninsula could expect breezy conditions, increased rain chances and the potential for localized flooding. Clouds with that low of a temperature have been found to generate heavy rainfall, according to NASA.

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