OPEC raises forecast based on United States oil production

Mae Love
September 24, 2018

"Our plan is to meet demand", Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said after meeting with fellow OPEC ministers in Algiers on Sunday, according to reports from Bloomberg.

Commodity traders Trafigura and Mercuria said they expected Brent crude to climb above $90 by Christmas and to pass $100 early in 2019.

Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, has accused Trump of orchestrating the oil price rally by imposing sanctions on Tehran and accused its regional arch-rival Saudi Arabia of bowing to U.S. pressure.

The U.S., which isn't an OPEC member and has in recent years seen a renewed boom in shale oil, will continue to grow as a crude producer, peaking in the late 2020s. "We will remember. The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!"

"The market does not have the supply response for a potential disappearance of 2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter", Jaeggi said in a speech at the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore. However, the consensus has now moved to as much as 1.5 million barrels daily as the U.S.is "incredibly serious" about its measures, he said.

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"OPEC is one of the third world's biggest accomplishments in my view, not just in terms of oil producers, but it's an organization that can be effective in the world's economy and it's a good, strong foundation", he underlined. Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates insisted they had the spare capacity to satisfy the market's needs, but wouldn't tap it preemptively. The global benchmark traded at an US$8.40 premium to West Texas Intermediate for the same month.

Crude oil futures have spiked in early Asian trade, gaining more than 1%. However, Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation now say they have no more capacity.

OPEC isn't the only organization that believes there is only so much US oil production can increase.

Dated Brent could see the biggest overhaul since the North Sea crude became a benchmark more than 30 years ago as S&P Global Platts considers including oil from as far away as Central Asia, West Africa and USA shale fields in its price assessment.

But once the USA sanctions on Iran take full effect, it will become clearer whether the Saudis are correct that the market is well-supplied, or whether the traders have picked a victor in tipping higher prices.

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